The cycle intensity of the hottest paper industry

2022-07-27
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The cycle intensity of this round of paper industry is expected to exceed the soaring net profit of listed paper enterprises in 2017 by more than 5 times

release date: Source: some interview records and paper citations of Xu Wei, head of light industry of Yuanchuan investment and Zhongtai Securities Research Institute. Number of times of browsing: 1672 copyright and disclaimer

core note: Recently, a number of listed paper companies have announced their 2020 performance express. Since the second half of 2020, China's paper prices have been rising all the way, and the price of white card paper has even hit the 10000 yuan mark after the Spring Festival, with an increase of

recently, a number of listed paper companies have announced their 2020 performance express. Since the second half of 2020, China's paper price has been rising all the way. After the Spring Festival, the price of white card paper has hit the 10000 yuan mark, with an increase of nearly 100%. The performance of paper enterprises has also increased

among them, the fastest growing enterprise not only increased its operating profit by 478.70%, but also its net profit increased by an astonishing 524.13% compared with 2019

the cycle intensity of this round of paper industry is expected to exceed that of 2017

Xu Luo, head of light industry of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, said: the cycle intensity of this round of paper industry is expected to exceed that of 2017, and the upward trend of paper prices will last at least until the first half of this year

the core driver of the papermaking cycle is the inventory cycle. At present, it is in the stage of active inventory increase. The inventory of raw materials and finished products has risen together with the price, and it is conservatively estimated that it will last until the first half of this year

the main manifestations of this strong cycle are:

1 The higher the industry concentration is, the easier it is to raise prices downstream.

the higher the industry concentration is, the better, because in a pro cyclical market, everyone will have stronger synergy and the price transmission process will be smoother. For example, when the price of wood pulp rises, household paper will be more affected than cultural paper and white cardboard. However, due to the high concentration of cultural paper and white cardboard industries, when the cost of raw materials rises sharply, paper enterprises have strong bargaining power and can transmit prices to the downstream

but in terms of household paper: first, the product differentiation is not obvious, and each brand has its own selling points; Second, the industry is relatively fragmented. In the process of rising costs, if the prices are significantly increased to the downstream, manufacturers may lose a lot of market share

when the increase of finished paper products is less than that of raw materials, some industries with relatively scattered concentration are more vulnerable to the rise of pulp prices

2. Under the background of plastic restriction and prohibition, white cardboard is the most beneficial.

a right angle notch is often cut at the edge.

in terms of plastic restriction, the national policy prohibits plastic packaging in some special scenes, and white cardboard is the most suitable substitute for plastic. Therefore, from the perspective of demand growth, white cardboard should be the paper with the highest prosperity

in terms of the waste prohibition order, after the quota of waste paper import is cleared in 2021, some leading enterprises may look for solutions for recycled pulp in Southeast Asia, the United States or other places, such as beating waste paper into pulp overseas and then importing it into China. But the core problem is that most of the overseas production lines will be put into operation in 2021 or later. As the 23-year-old Slater said that in the first half of this year, the source of raw materials for recycled fiber is insufficient. The grey background white board and white cardboard of the waste paper system are mutually replaceable, and the gap in raw materials will benefit the white cardboard

at the same time, under the trend of consumption upgrading, white paperboard has continued to upgrade and replace gray paperboard

3. The upward cycle of the paper industry lasted at least until the first half of this year.

from November 2016 to December 2020, the paper industry experienced a complete inventory cycle, including active inventory replenishment, passive inventory replenishment, active inventory removal and passive inventory removal. In December 2020, the last wave of passive inventory removal was over. Therefore, it can be deduced that from January 2021, it is an active inventory adding stage. This conclusion is also verified from the current situation. The inventory and prices of raw materials and finished products are in the stage of simultaneous rise

generally speaking, an inventory cycle is three years. Each wave of inventory cycle has four stages, and the duration of each stage is three quarters on average. Of course, it can also be transported by water to Hong Kong, Macao and Southeast Asia, which may be affected by changes in external prices, supply and demand environment

roughly judge the active inventory adding cycle this year, and at least the median will last until the third quarter of this year; It is conservatively estimated that at least in the first half of this year, the bolt change experimental machine of Jinan experimental machine factory is in the stage of active inventory

this round of active inventory increase is mainly due to good demand orientation, superimposed cost side factors, and the resonance and recovery of global bulk commodities. Therefore, the rise in paper prices is stronger than that in the fourth quarter of 2016

changing market demand side factors: ① the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC is a very important publicity window, and the demand should be greatly enlarged in the first and second quarters of this year. According to the 70th anniversary of the founding of the people's Republic of China in 2019, the demand for cultural paper at that time increased by about 3%. We believe that the paper consumption for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China is also expected to increase to a certain extent. According to rough calculation, the consumption is about 500000 tons; ② The new crown vaccine is widely vaccinated in China. At the same time, the vaccine is exported to other countries as a public product, and the drug packaging box mostly uses white cardboard, which will also increase the demand for white cardboard

therefore, whether from the perspective of demand growth or inventory cycle, the first half of this year or even the third quarter is the upward stage of paper price

the paper price soared, and the net profit of listed paper enterprises soared by more than 5 times.

let's take a look at the performance of some listed paper companies in 2020

Bohui paper

in 2020, Bohui paper achieved an operating income of 13.946 billion yuan, an increase of 43.18% over the same period of the previous year; The operating profit was 1.107 billion yuan, an increase of 478.70% over the same period of the previous year; In 2020, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 835million yuan, an increase of 524.13% over the same period of last year. By the end of 2020, the company's total assets were 19.482 billion yuan, an increase of 0.76% over the beginning of the period

according to the performance express, there are two main factors affecting the business performance of the enterprise:

1. Benefiting from the national "opinions on further strengthening plastic pollution control" and other policies, the contradiction between the supply and demand of white cards has become increasingly prominent, which has led to the recovery of the industry prosperity, and the company's product sales and prices have risen steadily in 2020

2. Several projects of the company and its subordinate enterprises have been officially put into operation, the company's output has increased steadily, and the growth rate of product sales in that year exceeded 30% year-on-year

Yueyang forest paper

yueyang forest paper achieved an operating income of 7.116 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 0.14% over the same period of the previous year; The operating profit was 507million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.63%; In 2020, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 414million yuan, an increase of 32.26% over the same period of last year. By the end of 2020, the company's total assets were 15.696 billion yuan, an increase of 0.94% over the beginning of the period

the announcement shows that during the reporting period, the net profit of the enterprise increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous year, mainly because:

1. During the reporting period, the company took strong measures to actively prevent and control the epidemic, continued production and stable sales, and the production and sales rate was basically stable

2. Pulp and paper linkage, giving full play to the advantages of centralized purchase and self-produced mechanical pulp, and the prices of main raw materials of paper products decreased year-on-year

3. Further deepen the reform, optimize the structure of the management department, effectively control the labor cost in the management expense, and reduce the management expense compared with the same period of the previous year

4. Actively seize the window period of national policies and carry out low interest loan replacement. The interest expenditure decreased compared with the same period of last year, and the financial expenses decreased compared with the same period of last year

in addition, during the reporting period, the subsidiary Yueyang Hengtai Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. reached the delivery conditions for the third phase of Yayuan, and the relevant income was recognized. The increase in net profit during the reporting period compared with the same period of the previous year was also a major reason

Jingxing paper

according to the 2020 performance forecast data released by Jingxing paper, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be between 283million yuan and 340million yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 50%-80% over the same period of the previous year

according to the financial report, the reason for the change in corporate performance is that in 2020, the enterprise made efforts to overcome the adverse impact of the epidemic, actively did a good job in epidemic prevention and control, and carried out various work around the established development strategy and annual business policy. At the same time, the company seized the opportunity of market recovery, and its production and operation showed a good development trend. The profit contribution of its main business increased compared with last year

in addition, during the reporting period, the company transferred part of its foreign equity investment according to the operation of the investment object and the company's foreign investment strategy, and obtained certain investment income

sun paper

performance express shows that in 2020, sun paper achieved an operating revenue of 21.568 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.25% over the same period last year; The operating profit was 2.346 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.26% over the same period of the previous year; In 2020, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.55% over the same period of last year. By the end of 2020, the company's total assets were 35.538 billion yuan, an increase of 10.04% over the beginning of the period

the main reason for the decrease in gross operating income and corporate profits is that the domestic dissolved pulp market was in a downturn during the reporting period, resulting in the decrease in sales of related products of the company; Meanwhile, during the reporting period, the market sales prices of some products of the company decreased to a certain extent compared with the same period last year

the performance express of Xianhe shares

shows that in 2020, Xianhe shares achieved an operating income of 4.843 billion yuan, an increase of 6.04% over the same period of the previous year; The operating profit was 833million yuan, an increase of 65.05% over the same period of the previous year; In 2020, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 715million yuan, an increase of 62.45% over the same period of last year. By the end of 2020, the company's total assets were 7.964 billion yuan, an increase of 7.93% over the beginning of the period

the announcement shows that the reasons for major changes in enterprise related data are as follows:

1. During the reporting period, the company's product business structure was further optimized for multiple production projects, the comprehensive scale benefits were gradually highlighted, and the unit production costs were reduced

2. The company actively distributes and expands new markets, develops new products and develops strategic value customers. During the reporting period, the company has formed all-round strategic cooperation in technology and market with many well-known customers in the industry

3. During the reporting period, the downstream market demand caused by consumption upgrading increased significantly, and the sales of the company's high-end paper-based medical packaging materials and food packaging materials increased significantly

4. In 2020, China's express business volume reached 83billion pieces, which led to a rapid growth in the sales of paper-based materials related to logistics

5. During the reporting period, the company further increased its R & D investment, and a number of alternative plastic paper products were successfully developed and put into the market. At the same time, the company's electrolytic capacitor paper is expected to achieve a rapid growth in sales revenue compared with the same period of the previous year

6. Compared with the same period in 2019, the effective implementation of the company's continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase measures promoted the overall gross profit margin of the company during the reporting period

Wuzhou special paper

in 2020, Wuzhou special paper achieved a total operating income of 2.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%; The operating profit was 424million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.73%; The total profit was 453million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.73%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 346million yuan, an increase of 73.44% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 320million yuan, an increase of 82.15% year-on-year; The basic earnings per share is about 0.95 yuan

the main reasons for profit growth are:

1 During the reporting period, Jiangxi Wuxing Paper Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company

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