How long can we enjoy the feast of the hottest mon

How long can we enjoy the feast of monocrystalline silicon

Abstract: how long can you enjoy the feast of single crystal? The author believes that even if the domestic photovoltaic policy remains unchanged and the polysilicon chip technology has not been improved to maintain the status quo, the feast of single crystal will not last more than two years

there is an old Chinese saying: for 30 years, many enterprises dare not take orders for 10 years! In today's market economy, this sentence is interpreted incisively and vividly. Many farmers in China lament that raising pigs is like speculating in stocks, but it is more risky than speculating in stocks, which is much harder. Specific to the photovoltaic industry, polycrystalline and single crystal in crystalline silicon have been implemented for three years. A year ago, the market share of monocrystalline silicon chips fell to the freezing point in China, down to 18%. Monocrystalline silicon chips are even priced at the same price as polycrystalline silicon chips. Up to now, monocrystalline silicon has a thriving scene from media to industry. Within a year, monocrystalline silicon has achieved a perfect counter attack. So how long can we enjoy the feast of single crystal

let's first learn some information. Figure 1 shows the market share changes of single crystal, polycrystalline, film, etc. from 2005 to 15. We can find that there are three parts of the manual hydraulic directional valve. From 2009 to 15, the market share of single crystal, film, etc. has been decreasing, while polycrystalline has achieved a blowout in 15 years. Figure 2 shows the statistical data of Japan's single crystal market share. Japan is a country with a very limited land area, and its demand for high-efficiency components should exceed that of other countries. However, the market share of single crystal components in Japan continues to decline. Let's take a look at the article "what does SunPower say about layoffs of 2500 people and closure of 700MW capacity" issued by photovoltaic by 2025: SunPower announced at the end of 2016 that it would close its Fab 2 solar IBC battery plant in the Philippines with a capacity of about 700MW, and cut 2500 jobs, equivalent to 25% of the global workforce. It is estimated that the reorganization will cost US $225-275 million and will be completed successively by the end of 2017. In August 2016, SunPower announced the closure of the Philippine component plant and its capacity of about 1GW, while cutting 1200 jobs and transferring the component production line to Mexico. SunPower has been committed to the R & D and production of high-efficiency single crystal batteries. As early as 2009, the mass production efficiency of SunPower's high-efficiency single crystal batteries reached 23%

why is there a completely different market hot and cold phenomenon of single crystal in foreign and domestic markets? Why did single crystal reverse at this time node in 2016 in China? Personally, I think it is related to two major reasons: one is the promotion of domestic photovoltaic policies, and the other is the reduction of the cost of monocrystalline silicon. The balance of domestic photovoltaic policy favors distributed photovoltaic power generation, which leads to the popularity of single crystal. Because the owners of distributed power stations inadvertently understand photovoltaic, when they hear that single crystal efficiency is higher, they do not hesitate to choose single crystal modules. While the owners of large photovoltaic power stations are experts in the industry, and the module selection only considers the cost performance. Secondly, due to the application of diamond wire cutting technology in single crystal, the cost of single crystal silicon wafer is greatly reduced, which plays a vital role in improving the cost performance of single crystal components. I remember that at the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016, the market price of high-efficiency polysilicon chips was even slightly higher than that of monocrystalline silicon chips

how long can you enjoy the feast of single crystal? The author believes that even if the domestic photovoltaic policy remains unchanged and the polysilicon chip technology has not been improved to maintain the status quo, the feast of single crystal will not last more than two years. Since the photovoltaic industry has developed to the present, it is a capital intensive and labor-intensive industry in China. The feast of single crystal will undoubtedly attract countless eaters. The result of everyone flocking to the single crystal project is that the pioneers of single crystal, Longji and Zhonghuan, ate meat, while the latter licked blood, but lost their tongue and head. This is like the investors who entered the market at 5000 points in 2015. The policy is constantly changing, and the technology of polysilicon chip is also constantly improving. Photovoltaic reported such a "major breakthrough in diamond wire cutting polycrystalline velvet technology, low cost and high efficiency!" on February 4, The core content is that Schmid, a German solar photovoltaic equipment supplier, has launched the velvet equipment DW Pretex for diamond wire cut polysilicon chips, and has obtained a 500MW order. Schmid believes that 5GW orders are expected this year. Therefore, if we take into account the changes in policies, the cost reduction of polysilicon chips and other factors, the time to enjoy the feast of single crystal should not exceed two years, and the occurrence of variable inventory in 2018 should be a high probability event

at last, I borrow Mr. Lu Wenquan's point of view to end:

1. Single crystal and polycrystal rise and fall one after another. Polycrystal and single crystal have cost advantages, but their efficiency is slightly lower. Both of them have passed five passes, killed six generals, and also lost Mai Cheng

2. Some markets are irreplaceable in their dominant positions

3. Quasi single crystal has the potential to replace single crystal, but there are still some technical obstacles

4. In the future, if there is no revolutionary advanced process or technology, there will still be no situation that one party will replace the other, but it will continue to rise and fall